本期佳宾: 中国工程院院士 丁一汇

采访人: 中国景象形象报记者 卢健

本期概念:

本年超强梅雨是在一次弱的厄尔尼诺背景下发生的，这通报出一个主要旌旗灯号: 在天气变更背景下对汛期长江流域降雨停止预告，必须扩展视线，既要存眷传统的承平洋，也要正视印度洋与北冰洋的影响。

从印度洋一向到孟加拉湾和陆地大陆地区的海-气探测，对将来的天气展望很是有代价。

zaitianqizhanwangzhong，you“xunqizhangjiangdashuikanchengpingyang”dechuantongshuofa。hanqingshangzhangjiangliuyujihuidaxunmianqian，douyoufashengzaihandaichengpingyangdeeerninuozheiweiqiangwulituishoudeshenying，jingchangpishichuizouzhexunqizhangjiangliuyudebaoyu“lezhang”。keshizaibenniandechaoqiangmeiyushiwuzhong，quebingburuchangpiejianlaizichengpingyangdeneiwei“pishizhe”，neimoshisheizaidaochangzhudaozheichangchaoqiangmeiyu？

厄尔尼诺的感化纪律被突破了？

meiyuqizhang、yuquguimoguang、leijiyuliangda、qiangjiangshuijinchengduo……huishoubenniandemeihanji，tesehenshituqi，cizhongzhangjiangdiquhejianghuaidiquleijijiangyuliangjunweijuhanqingdier，shiyicidianfandechaoqiangmeiyu。

danguojiwaibushaozhuanjiaxuezhezaifupancicidianfanchaoqiangmeiyushi，doufamingleqimeifashuhudeyige“feidianfanxing”tese。“anzhaochuantongshuofa，woguoxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuputongdoushizaichengpingyangqiangeerninuobeijingxiafasheng。bifang，shirenyingxiangyouxinde1983nianhe1998nianzhangjiangdadashui，jiubielishi1982/1983nianhe1997/1998niandechaoqiangeerninuoerzhi。”dingyihuishuo，“danbenniandemeihanjizewanzhengbuyiyang，zaozaozaibennian5yuecibietianqiwutaideeerninuoshiwu，kancheng1951nianyilaihanqingzuiruo。danbianshizairuxudebeijingxia，xunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuyilunyouyilundiyanxufasheng，bingzhongjiuchongshanglehanqingdierqiang。”

yantaozheyongnino3.4zhishu （jiyuhaibiaowendudeeerninuo/nanbiantaodongmubiaozhiyi）zhongxiubennian6~7yuezhangjiangliuyujiangshuijupingfaming，chengguoyuxianshiguanchazhixiangchashenyuan，erzaichayanzhong，bennianzhangjiangbaoyuyuchengpingyanghaiwenxiangganxinghenruo。zheixiedoubiaomingbennianeerninuodailaideyingxiangqueqiehenshiruo。

neimosheishibennianchaoqiangmeiyudezhudaozhe？

六次暴雨面前的准双周振荡

“zaiduibennianmeiyuqijiangshuitingzhichanfahou，zanmenfaminglebiedeyigezhuyaotese——yibeiwei30°xianweizhongjian，bennianzhangjiangliuyuyudaiqianhoufashengduoda6lundenanbeizhendang。”zheiyinfaledingyihuihetadegongshimendechugecunjuan，zaiduibennianxunqitianqihetianqihuanliutingzhitixichanfahou，tadechuleyigezhuyaolunduan: yudaizhendangshiyigebiaoxiang，qimianqiandejiezhizhe，qiashifuhandaigaoya （jianchengfugao）zhunshuangzhouzhendang。

juci，tashulichucizhongdetianqiliantiao: meicifugaobeitiaozhibeiwei30°sizhou，nanmianlaidenuanshiqiliubianxiangbeitingjinyici，bingyucongbeijiaerhu-mengguheribenhailiangzhinanxiadelengfenweizaibeiwei30°sizhouxiangyu。erzheyicicizaicijiaohuibingbiciganhua，bianshibennianmeiyuqizhangjiangliuyuyanxufashenglianggeyuedabaoyudejianjieyuanyou。

“bennianzhangjiangliuyudabaoyudejiaodiantimu，bianshifuhandaigaoyadezhunshuangzhouzhendang。fannangxijiang，zhiyaoyingyongdaqidezhunshuangzhouzhendang，nengliquanshizhei6cibaoyujinchengfashengdeyuanyou。”dingyihuishuo。

guanjiantixisuodinghou，biedeyigetimuyoulaile: bennianfugaodezhunshuangzhouzhendangzheimejiaozhe，tadequnengyuanshishenmeni？

印度洋“浮出水面”

nangxiyantaobianjiyiwei，fugaodezhunshuangzhouzhendanglaizichengpingyang，danbennian“henshiruodeeerninuonian”rangxuezhebudebucongtousilv: zheileizhunshuangzhouzhendangshibushihuizaodaobiedehaijiangyingxiang？

weiyudongyadongbeibianxiangdeyinduyangjinrulerenmendeshixian。zaibennianxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuzuiqiangdeshichen，chengpingyangeerninuoshiwuyijunshibingzhengxianglaninagaibian，ercishideyinduyangque“yipianhong”，zheixiangzhengzheyinduyanghenshibiannuan。zaiwangqiankan，zheileigaohaiwenzhuangkuangyichouqiandongyanxudaochunxia。anzhaoludixuejiadeyantao，zheishisuoweiyinduyangoujizi（iod）zhengweixiangjiliechengzhangdechengguo（suoweichaodengyinduyangoujizi）。

xunzheyinduyanghaiwendejiliejingqidenghao，yitiaoxindeluojiliantiaobeishulilechulai: zaibennianchengpingyangeerninuopianruodebeijingxia，yinduyangjiliezengwen，yindujifengpianqiang，dongbeifengxiafashengdenuanpingliujiaya，shidexichengpingyanghenanhaifugaozengqiang。yiciyouyicidenuanpingliu，zhongjiu“qianyin”zhefugaoyiciyouyicixishenzengqiang。nangxishizaieerninuoshiwuheioddepeihequdongxiashifugaozengqiang，bennianweiyiyinduyangdeganhua，zheishihenzhangduanchangde。

“congtongjichanfakan，duiyinduyangmotaitingzhipianxiangganhuigui，suohuodede500baipahe850baipadexiangganxishudoushihenshigaode。”dingyihuixianrong，chupianxianggan，yinduyangbipoxiafashengdezhangjiangbaoyusanbudiquyehuodelehenhaodeduiying，eryuhandaichengpingyangwuxiangganxing。

xianshishang，nangxi20nianli，yinduyangyixiangzaishengwenzhong，bingyidaole“busuoweixiajiang、xiajiang，zhiyaoshengwenshikuaishiman”deshuiping。zaidingyihuikanlai，ciqianyinduyangduixunqizhangjiangliuyujiangyuqingshidejiezhiganhuakexuejiazaoyoushuxi，bingqietayueerninuonianjingchangfashengxietongganhua。keshizaiqiangeerninuoniandeyanbixiaoyingzhixia，zheileiyinduyangdeyingxiangjingchangbeishuhule。erzaijianglaijinian，yifangmianchengpingyangchuantongdedongbuxingeerninuoshiwujiangjiaozhexuejian，biedeyifangmianduanshijianneiyinduyanghaiwenzhenghenshijiangyixiangyanxuxiaqu。zonghelaikan，yinduyangzengwenyinfadejifengyufuhandaigaoyadedipinzhendangnenggouhaijiangyanxuxiaqu。dingyihuijinyibuzhichu，benniandezheigelizigaozhizanmen，jibianbueerninuoganhua，yinduyangdehenshiganhua（zhengiodxing）yiyangnenggouyinfazhangjiangdabaoyu。

“zheiduitianqizhanwanglaijiangshiyigehenshidadetiaoxin。”dingyihuiyiwei，duiwoguoxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuyugaoyingyelaijiang，shixianbixuchongshifankai，chengpingyang、yinduyang、beibingyangdouyaozhenzhuo，ercongyinduyangyixiangdaomengjialawandehai-qitance，duijianglaidetianqizhanwangjianghenshiyoudaijia。jiuyuanlaikan，cihoutianqizhanwangbixuchenglizaiduitianqibiangengchongshizhengshidegenbenshang，bingbushizengqiangduixinjilvdeyantaohebawonengliquzhuxindetiaoxin。