景象形象科普

研讨天气变暖背景下我国降水特点变更——降水集合水平是首要目标

发布时候:2021-12-11 16:31:44 作者: 字体:

本期佳宾: 南京信息工程大学传授 陆尔

采访人: 中国景象形象报记者 李慧

本期观点:

除降水总量和强度之外,延续时候、降水的集合水平和集合期间也是权衡降水特点变更的首要目标。

降水集合度指数是用来权衡年(季、月或候)内每日降水的时候变更水平,能够准确反应必然期间降水集合的属性。

genzhehuanqiubiannuan,jidushiwupinrengchansheng,yanxuxingjidujiangshuihejiduganhanshizhongguoshenzhihuanqiuzhizaizuiweiyanjundejidutianqitianqishiwuzhiyi。jin50nianlai,woguozongjiangshuiliangguranbujiaozhedejiduhuapianxiang,danjunyunjiangshuiqiangduchengzengtianquxiang。congxianshixiaqushuo,jiangshuiqiangdusanbudebiangeng,xianshishangshijiangshuijilvsanbumiduchanshenglezhuanbian。

“zaitianqibiannuanbeijingxia,jiangshuidekongjiansanbukuanshi、gejihoudefenpaijinianjibianlvdeng,douyounenggouchanshengxingzhuangshangdezhuanbian,zheixieyuwoguohonglaoganhandengzainanganxijinmiqinmi。”luerbiaoxian。cikeliangduotongjiyujiangshuiyouguandechuantongfangshihaizaicaozong,bifang,jingyoujinchengzhuyuejiangshuiyunianzongjiangshuiliangdebizhilaifanyingmouzhandiandenianjiangshuisanbu。yucijinside,chunxiaqiudongsishihehonglaojihoudejiangshuidounenggoujingyoujinchengxiangyingdejiangshuiliangyunianzongjiangshuiliangdebizhilaibiaoxian。zuidahuozuixiaojiangshuiliangyunianzongjiangshuiliangbizhidefangshi,zaiyantaomougediyuhanlaozainanzhongyehenshouyao。biede,yongjilvsanbuhanshuyenenggoubiaoxianjiangshuinianjibiangeng。

“zheixiechuantongdefangshigeyouyoucuowumiuwu,dandoucunzaiyigebianjitimu,bianshimeifacaozongyigejianlvedefangshilaifanyingjiangshuidejiheshuipinghezuidajiangshuiliangchanshengdeqijian。fangchashimiaoxieyigesuijibianliangtuanyuanshuipingdefangshi,keshitabiniheyongyuchayanzhengtaisanbudebianliang。jiangshuiliangjilvmiduhanshufanshichengpiantaisanbu,jijiangshuichangchangchengpiantaisanbu,yishifangchabuheyongyuchayanjiangshuidetuanyuanshuiping。”luerxianrongdao。

chujiangshuizongliangheqiangduwai,yanxushihou、jiangshuidejiheshuipinghejiheqijianyeshiquanhengjiangshuitedianbiangengdeyigeshouyaotedian。

jin50nianlai,zhongguodiyudejidujiangshuibiangengquxiangyuhuanqiudechengzhangquxianggenjifenqi。cizhong,zhongguoxibudiyu、zhangjiangzhongxialiudiyuhehuananneididengdiyudejidujiangshuishiwuquyuzengtian。bingqie,zuijinjinianlaizhangjiangliuyudejiangshuizaishihouhekongjianshangdejiheshuipingjiaozhezengtian,zheiyeshishuihanzainanjiazhongdeshouyaoyuanyou。

kejian,jiangshuishikongjiheshuipingshiyuyanjunhanlaoshiwujinmiqinmixianggande,neimo,jiangshuishikongjiheshuipingshibushihuisuihuanqiubiannuanjinyibuzengqiang,tadebiangengshibushihuizhishihanlaozainanjiabeiyanjundengtimu,yiyinfarenmendebianjicunjuan。shiyi,yantaotuanduicaozongxinxishangdeguandian,chenglijiangshuijiheduzhishu(qzhishu),jineryonglaibiaozhengchabieshihouduan、chabiediyujiangshuijiheshuipingdetedian。gaifangshizuidadeshangfengshiyantaoshihoudebaqunenggouweisiyishiduan,heyongyuzhuxiaoshi、meirihezhuyuedengcailiaohegeleishihouzhangdudecailiao,shiyigaifangshideheyongxinggengguang。

qzhishushiyonglaiquanhengnian(ji、yuehuohou)neimeirijiangshuideshihoubiangengshuiping,nenggouzhunquefanyingbiranqijianjiangshuijihedeshuxing。dangqzhishuxiao(kaojin0)shi,daibiaojiangshuifensanzaigengduodeyurinei;dangqzhishuda(kaojin1)shi,daibiaojiangshuijihezaiduoshudeyurinei。ruoshizongjiangshuiliangda,zeqingyichanshengganqihuozuoshiwu,yichanshengyanxuxingqiangjiangshui,fanzhiyiran。jiangqzhishuhezongjiangshuilianglianxi,youyiyuqingchushufajiangshuideyanxupiqikuang。

yantaotuanduicaozongqzhishuduihuananxiarijiangshuijihehuanjingtingzhideyantaofaming,zaihuanandiyuxiarijiangshuiyulaiyujihedebeijingxia,yanxuxingjiangshuizengtian。zaixiari,woguohuananbeibudabudiyuqzhishuzai0.2zhi0.3zhijian,zheishenminghuananbeibudabudiyuxiarijiangshuijiaoweifenli。zainianjibiangengfangmian,huanandiyujin50nianxiariqzhishuhejiangshuizongliangxianxianzengtianquxiang,zheishenminghuananxiarigengduodejiangshuijiangzaigengshaodeyurineixianxian,jinershenmingjiangshuiqiangduzengtianle,ruxuhenqingyixingchenghonglaozainan。

biede,zaihuanandiyuxiarijiangshuiyulaiyujihedebeijingxia,buguanjiangshuiliangwei1haomi、25haomirengshi50haomi,yanxu1tiandejiangshuijinchengdoushizaixuejiande,eryanxuduoridejiangshuijinchengzaizengtian,zheiyeshenminghuananxiariyanxuxingjiangshuiheyanxuxingqiang/jidujiangshuijinchengdoushizengtiande。


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研讨天气变暖背景下我国降水特点变更——降水集合水平是首要目标
2021-12-11 16:31:44

本期佳宾: 南京信息工程大学传授 陆尔

采访人: 中国景象形象报记者 李慧

本期观点:

除降水总量和强度之外,延续时候、降水的集合水平和集合期间也是权衡降水特点变更的首要目标。

降水集合度指数是用来权衡年(季、月或候)内每日降水的时候变更水平,能够准确反应必然期间降水集合的属性。

genzhehuanqiubiannuan,jidushiwupinrengchansheng,yanxuxingjidujiangshuihejiduganhanshizhongguoshenzhihuanqiuzhizaizuiweiyanjundejidutianqitianqishiwuzhiyi。jin50nianlai,woguozongjiangshuiliangguranbujiaozhedejiduhuapianxiang,danjunyunjiangshuiqiangduchengzengtianquxiang。congxianshixiaqushuo,jiangshuiqiangdusanbudebiangeng,xianshishangshijiangshuijilvsanbumiduchanshenglezhuanbian。

“zaitianqibiannuanbeijingxia,jiangshuidekongjiansanbukuanshi、gejihoudefenpaijinianjibianlvdeng,douyounenggouchanshengxingzhuangshangdezhuanbian,zheixieyuwoguohonglaoganhandengzainanganxijinmiqinmi。”luerbiaoxian。cikeliangduotongjiyujiangshuiyouguandechuantongfangshihaizaicaozong,bifang,jingyoujinchengzhuyuejiangshuiyunianzongjiangshuiliangdebizhilaifanyingmouzhandiandenianjiangshuisanbu。yucijinside,chunxiaqiudongsishihehonglaojihoudejiangshuidounenggoujingyoujinchengxiangyingdejiangshuiliangyunianzongjiangshuiliangdebizhilaibiaoxian。zuidahuozuixiaojiangshuiliangyunianzongjiangshuiliangbizhidefangshi,zaiyantaomougediyuhanlaozainanzhongyehenshouyao。biede,yongjilvsanbuhanshuyenenggoubiaoxianjiangshuinianjibiangeng。

“zheixiechuantongdefangshigeyouyoucuowumiuwu,dandoucunzaiyigebianjitimu,bianshimeifacaozongyigejianlvedefangshilaifanyingjiangshuidejiheshuipinghezuidajiangshuiliangchanshengdeqijian。fangchashimiaoxieyigesuijibianliangtuanyuanshuipingdefangshi,keshitabiniheyongyuchayanzhengtaisanbudebianliang。jiangshuiliangjilvmiduhanshufanshichengpiantaisanbu,jijiangshuichangchangchengpiantaisanbu,yishifangchabuheyongyuchayanjiangshuidetuanyuanshuiping。”luerxianrongdao。

chujiangshuizongliangheqiangduwai,yanxushihou、jiangshuidejiheshuipinghejiheqijianyeshiquanhengjiangshuitedianbiangengdeyigeshouyaotedian。

jin50nianlai,zhongguodiyudejidujiangshuibiangengquxiangyuhuanqiudechengzhangquxianggenjifenqi。cizhong,zhongguoxibudiyu、zhangjiangzhongxialiudiyuhehuananneididengdiyudejidujiangshuishiwuquyuzengtian。bingqie,zuijinjinianlaizhangjiangliuyudejiangshuizaishihouhekongjianshangdejiheshuipingjiaozhezengtian,zheiyeshishuihanzainanjiazhongdeshouyaoyuanyou。

kejian,jiangshuishikongjiheshuipingshiyuyanjunhanlaoshiwujinmiqinmixianggande,neimo,jiangshuishikongjiheshuipingshibushihuisuihuanqiubiannuanjinyibuzengqiang,tadebiangengshibushihuizhishihanlaozainanjiabeiyanjundengtimu,yiyinfarenmendebianjicunjuan。shiyi,yantaotuanduicaozongxinxishangdeguandian,chenglijiangshuijiheduzhishu(qzhishu),jineryonglaibiaozhengchabieshihouduan、chabiediyujiangshuijiheshuipingdetedian。gaifangshizuidadeshangfengshiyantaoshihoudebaqunenggouweisiyishiduan,heyongyuzhuxiaoshi、meirihezhuyuedengcailiaohegeleishihouzhangdudecailiao,shiyigaifangshideheyongxinggengguang。

qzhishushiyonglaiquanhengnian(ji、yuehuohou)neimeirijiangshuideshihoubiangengshuiping,nenggouzhunquefanyingbiranqijianjiangshuijihedeshuxing。dangqzhishuxiao(kaojin0)shi,daibiaojiangshuifensanzaigengduodeyurinei;dangqzhishuda(kaojin1)shi,daibiaojiangshuijihezaiduoshudeyurinei。ruoshizongjiangshuiliangda,zeqingyichanshengganqihuozuoshiwu,yichanshengyanxuxingqiangjiangshui,fanzhiyiran。jiangqzhishuhezongjiangshuilianglianxi,youyiyuqingchushufajiangshuideyanxupiqikuang。

yantaotuanduicaozongqzhishuduihuananxiarijiangshuijihehuanjingtingzhideyantaofaming,zaihuanandiyuxiarijiangshuiyulaiyujihedebeijingxia,yanxuxingjiangshuizengtian。zaixiari,woguohuananbeibudabudiyuqzhishuzai0.2zhi0.3zhijian,zheishenminghuananbeibudabudiyuxiarijiangshuijiaoweifenli。zainianjibiangengfangmian,huanandiyujin50nianxiariqzhishuhejiangshuizongliangxianxianzengtianquxiang,zheishenminghuananxiarigengduodejiangshuijiangzaigengshaodeyurineixianxian,jinershenmingjiangshuiqiangduzengtianle,ruxuhenqingyixingchenghonglaozainan。

biede,zaihuanandiyuxiarijiangshuiyulaiyujihedebeijingxia,buguanjiangshuiliangwei1haomi、25haomirengshi50haomi,yanxu1tiandejiangshuijinchengdoushizaixuejiande,eryanxuduoridejiangshuijinchengzaizengtian,zheiyeshenminghuananxiariyanxuxingjiangshuiheyanxuxingqiang/jidujiangshuijinchengdoushizengtiande。

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